A Unique Crisis: 4 Insights into the Coronavirus
You may think: “What more is there to say? What could you possibly say about the virus and current situation that hasn’t been said already?”
Well, I’m not sure that these words are new, but perhaps they provide a needed reminder, and some insight into important aspects of the virus.
Specifically, there are 4 points I want to make: About its spread (exponential), forming an opinion (difficult), what it is (intangible), and how to fight it (by being passive).
1) Exponential Growth
You probably know that the virus spreads exponentially. A good way of seeing this exponential growth is looking at graphs showing the amount of new people affected (vs. time).
Unfortunately we, as people, find exponential growth difficult to grasp. We’re notoriously bad at this, as we automatically assume that historic growth will continue in the same fashion, linearly, rather than seeing the growth itself grow (or speed up).
There’s this amazing interactive article from the Washington Post showing not just how exponential growth works, but also how exponential growth works after measures have been taken to limit the virus. In other words, a measure taken one day later to limit social contact can have drastic consequences to the amount of infected people (or yet in other words: act now!).
Unfortunately, since we can’t easily grasp exponential growth, it makes it more difficult to act fast. This is certainly one of the reasons that some countries have been relatively late with putting in place the right measures even after news came from the first infections in China.
2) Forming an Opinion
I find it quite difficult to form an opinion on the virus, how governments handle it, and what we should do as people to limit its consequences. That’s because there are a few different forces at work here.
We thrive on negativity, and our media intake is based much more on negative news than on positive news. Any news about the virus is very likely to be negative — which leads us to form a more negative opinion of the state of the world and corona in it.
So how scary is it truly? How bad of a virus is this, and what is its effect (and will its effects be) on society in the short and long term?
It’s difficult to say. Perhaps in this case though, forming a negative opinion about the current state of affairs is not such a bad thing. After all, it’s better to be safe than sorry.
And yet, there is also a form of social stigma around seeing the world so negatively. You can be seen as a doomsdayer; someone standing on the street, proclaiming: “The end is nigh!” and predicting the end of times.
No one likes that kind of person; and no one likes someone who spreads hysteria rather than news. So even when we do have an opinion, we may show restraint in expressing our true feelings.
3) An Intangible Threat
We often see threats as coming from people. There is war, there are thieves and other criminals, corrupt governments, terrorists, but also plane crashes and car accidents.
Even if we include common phobias (for spiders, lightning, blood, open spaces and heights), we’re often afraid of tangible things. Things we can see, hear, taste, feel, and can describe (well).
In contrast, a virus is not a threat (or fear) that is easy to describe. We cannot see the virus, only its effects. And even then we’re not always certain that the effects we see are caused by that specific virus.
And that’s an issue. Because when we can describe the threat or ‘the enemy’, it becomes easier to put measures in place — to make people aware of the size of the threat, and the importance of such measures.
A very clear example of this is the response of politicians such as President Lukashenko. Some time ago, the Belarusian president said at an ice hockey match:
There are no viruses here, you haven’t seen them flying around, have you? I don’t see them either! This is a fridge. Sport, particularly the ice, this fridge here, that’s the best antiviral cure!
4) How to Fight it
And so we come to the last point: tackling the virus.
It’s difficult to show people how important it is to tackle the coronavirus head-on. But even if you manage to do so, the weird thing is, we both can and cannot actually do something.
If we look at bad things happening in the world — from Uyghur detainment camps to the Syrian war — there’s often something we can do, even if we often do not.
We could write to our political representatives, donate money for a humanitarian organisation, volunteer, and do a million of other things.
But with the virus, there’s not much we can actually do. Most of us can’t volunteer at a hospital, and most money donated goes to local entrepreneurs, which is a good cause, but doesn’t actually help tackle the virus head-on.
The only thing we actually can do is a non-action; it’s to be passive, and to not go about our normal business, do activities and meet people.
With the use of some governmental sticks and carrots, in most countries this seems to be going quite well. But it’s a strange thing. For this crisis, the only activity that we can ‘do’ to face it, is to practice passivity.
The Coronavirus: A Unique Crisis
It should be clear by now: In comparison to other crises our world has faced, the coronavirus is entirely unique. That is because it makes it difficult to:
- Grasp its exponential growth
- Form an opinion
- Truly comprehend the threat even though its intangible, and
- Understand how to counter-act (by passivity)
And yet, we have to try. We will have to deal with these difficult aspects of the virus in one way or another — because for now, unfortunately, the Coronavirus is here to stay.
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